As the Queen’s birthday weekend bears down upon South oz surfers, many are considering their options and hedging their bets… but will the last long weekend for 4 months deliver the goods as it has in previous years?

Perhaps I should start by giving you the good news, in that it won’t be a complete write off… but you’ll have to work hard to find decent waves this weekend. Unlike last year’s unseasonally warm weather and Easterly wind effected swell, we’re in for a more typically winter weather pattern over the next few days. That means rain and winds predominantly out of the western quarter, but tending NW and not too strong initially.

Saturday:

A weak Low will pass over Adelaide on Saturday, so we’ll have NE - NW winds in the morning possibly around 10 - 15 knots, SW winds sometime in the afternoon, and possibly little or no wind somewhere in the middle. The Mid Coast will have bumpy waves around a foot or so, but the South Coast should be in the 3′ category at Middleton - Goolwa and nice and clean for the first half of the day. Spots over at Yorkes like Pondie will be cross-onshore, but breaks between Chi’s and West Cape will be offshore and should have good medium sized waves. As winds go SW later options will become restricted, with not enough swell for sheltered spots to really fire at Yorkes or Victor.

Sunday:

A fresh SW airstream will mean plenty of bumps on the Fleurieu and Yorke Peninsula. Winds may be lighter earlier in the day, but either way it’ll be onshore and quality will suffer. The Mid might get up to around 1 - 2′ after lunch, but it’ll be choppy and nothing special. Victor should be in the 2 - 3′ range again, possibly a bit weaker than Saturday which might totally rule out part-sheltered spots like Drib’s Bay, Chicken Run or The Dump. Swell will be marginal for those out-of -the-way spots at Yorkes, perhaps if the wind is more SW later you might get a bumpy wave up Daly’s way.

Monday:

With the approach of another front we’ll have strong NW winds in the morning, possibly gusting near 30 knots on both peninsulas.Down South looks like it’ll be small and blown out - maybe 1 - 2′ or so at Middleton and a bit bigger around at Waits.The Mid might get a few wind-peaks later but looks like starting out the day with 1′ waves and heaps of whitecaps. Breaks along the South Coast at Yorkes will be caned by the wind, but don’t write off the whole peninsula… there are a few spots that might be worth checking if you don’t mind a bit of a drive. Winds will probably shift W - SW during the day, but don’t look like producing “proper” stormy conditions in St. Vincent’s Gulf as they drop back to around 20 knots mid arvo. Most Mid Coast reefs will have a wave, but a massive afternoon tide might see the weekend end with a cast of thousands slogging it out at Y-Steps.

If you’re travelling pack your wet weather gear, and if you’re camping, try and stay somewhere you can make a bloody big fire to stay warm. If you’re driving, for feck sake take it easy and stay off the piss. The best end to a surf weekend away is to get home in one piece, not getting scraped off the road by the poor ambos.

Play nice kids.

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