The madness behind the method behind the shred factor…
It’s funny how often feedback on Surfsouthoz filters back through friends and acquaintances. Most recently, a mate related a conversation he’d had with two friends who were bemoaning the much maligned “shred factor” quoted in every daily report. One was heard to say “how could they call today a 4? It wasn’t even a 2!”, the other stating that a recent trip to the South Coast yielded a “9” based on the tubefest he’d had at pumping Waits… when the South Coast report gave the day a mere 7. Amidst all this angst about an arbitrary rating, often applied on a whim, and often at a mentally foggy hour of the morning, I decided it was high time you got some sort of explanation.
20-5-08: A very good day at Bullies, but all time? We gave it a 9
Let me start by saying that the shred factor is bollocks.
OK, I’m aware you’re now reeling in disbelief that this most holy of qualitative measurements is not held in the highest regard, but it’s the truth. The fact is, that waaaaay back in the dark distant past, many punters asked… nay… demanded… that we place such a rating at the end of each report. I personally resisted this for quite a while, because frankly, I couldn’t see the point. “How can you condense all those variables… swell size… wind velocity and direction… bank quality… and weather for a start… into one single number?” I’d groan. Then there was the issue of the subjectivity of the whole thing. A mild mannered longboarder might rate a glassy 3 foot day at Day St a 9/10… but your barrel-starved hardcore shortboarder would laugh out loud at the suggestion it was worth more than a 3. To me the whole idea sounded like a minefield that had to be tip-toed through each and every day come rain, hail, or shine.
When surfsouthoz began doing daily SA reports ( well, Fleurieu Peninsula reports if you want to be pernickety ) for Coastalwatch.com a few years ago, the /10 rating became unavoidable… and it’s been here ever since. Sometimes it’s a pretty straightforward affair… especially around week 4 of that November / December SE wind cursed flat spell we have each year. Other times though, it seems like the rating requires numerous caveats, disclaimers and qualifications… if not constant revision!
At sunrise… 7/10…but by 11am May 5 had delivered the biggest, cleanest swell of 2008
In light of such complexity and broad interpretation, here is a rough guide for the Shred Factor.
0 – Not given out very often, but if there’s no waves whatsoever and no chance of any appearing anywhere that day, it scores nada.
1 – A one is a token rating that really means conditions are to all intents, unsurfable. This may be because of lack of swell, or weather… or both.
2 – Micro Groms or gigantic Mals may be able to get something on a “2” day… but 95% of surfers probably wouldn’t bother.
3 – Probably about the minimum rating a stormy would get if it was small, or a big sloppy swell on the South Coast with strong South winds. About 50% of surfers could get waves on a “3” day.
4 – Tiny days on the Mid Coast and onshore days at Victor get 4’s.
5 – Small and inconsistent or bigger onshore days on the Mid Coast, nominally surfable onshore or near flat days at Victor get 5’s.
6 – Something’s not quite right… but you’ll probably get a wave. It might be inconsistent, cross-shore, too lumpy, or too full.
7 – Don’t blow off work, but if you were in two minds about a trip, go. Days like this can improve… or suddenly get worse.
8 – Days that are not all-time, but pretty fun nonetheless. The South Coast scored almost 2 straight weeks of 8’s in June this year, when swell ranged 3 – 5′ and offshore N – NW winds ranged between 5 and 15 knots the whole time.
9 – Probably about half a dozen days a year would pull a nine, in fact, in some cases it might mark the best day of the year.
10 – You cannot get better. Picture a day with brilliant weather and pumping swell all day, the likes of which you haven’t seen in years. Almost a freak event.
Some perspective. Pondie in Feb 2004… one of many, many similar days.
When all’s said and done, the shred factor is for lazy people… and basing your decision on where or when to surf on it is not recommended. The best thing you can do is learn to benchmark your ratings against the size and quality ratings given in the reports, and make your calls based on that.
There is also another, insane, revolutionary approach.
Just go.











Since April 2000 Surfsouthoz has delivered surf reports, pics, and surf news to South Australian surfers. Over that time we’ve established ourselves as the most reliable and longest running free surf report in SA - and created a respected brand along the way.

